Allen Lopez
After a basketball-packed day, tonight’s schedule is a bit lighter. With only 5 games on the NBA slate and several significant spreads, it’s the perfect opportunity to dive into the prop lab and uncover some value.
Tonight I’ve got a couple props that might feel strange, but just hear me out and read the entire breakdown; you might like what I found.
Let’s talk about my favorite NBA Props tonight.
- Deni Avdija o1.5 3s (-105)
- Paolo Bancher o5.5 Assists (+130)
Deni Avdija o1.5 3s (-105)
Deni Avdija іs finally having his breakout season, averaging 14.1 PPG, 6.5 RPG and 3.3 APG. Now, over his L10 games he’s finally seeing his play time start tо match his level оf play, he’s averaging 33.7 MPG іn these 10 games and he’s rewarded the Blazers with 18.7 PPG and 8.6 RPG.
Tonight the Blazers come into a matchup with the Miami Heat, a team who rank 22nd in 3s given up to PFs this year. In matchups with similar archetype players, the Heat have struggled; allowing John Collins to make 3 of his 4s, Wemby went 3/8, Lauri 5/12, and even Keegan Murray with his recent struggles shot 4/6 from beyond the arc.
The Blazers struggle to score the ball with any kind of consistency, their play relies mainly on the play of Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe. Over the last few games, we’ve seen Blazers’ Head Coach Chauncy Billups put more trust in Deni and it’s paid off.
This year, on the road is where Deni really shines from beyond the arc. This year, when away from the Moda Center, Deni is shooting 37% from 3 and he’s over this line in 6 of his L10 road games; shooting 42% from 3 in those games.
If the Blazers want to develop their young core, it starts with games like this and guys like Deni. Last season they made the trade for Avdija and Billups immediately said he was their best player. He might not get the usage of the #1 just yet, but he’s got the respect of their head coach and sometime’s that’s enough to get you the volume.
Paolo Banchero o5.5 Assists (+130)
The Magic are struggling to score the ball and Paolo’s return hasn’t really solved the problem. Today the Magic come into this game as a ONE and a HALF point favorite on the Raptors.
That line, just based on the play of the Raptors alone, feels like a huge trap. Over the Magic’s L5 games, all with Paolo in the lineup, they’re averaging just under 100 points per game, shooting 41% from the field and just 27% from beyond the arc.
Orlando’s lost 4 of these 5 games, with their only win being against the Sixers in a game which they scored just 104 points. Orlando needs to find their offense and they need to do it fast. Jalen Suggs remains on the sidelines and without him their defense has looked shakey.
Over the Magic’s L5 games, they’re allowing close to 113 PPG and allowing opponents to shoot 53% from the field. Both these numbers are drastic changes from their regular season marks of 104.3 PPG allowed on just 47% from the field. Tonight if the Magic want to win this game, they’ll need to find their offense.
In the 5 games since his return, Paolo’s averaging 11.8 potential assists per game but he’s converting on just 4 per game. He’s over this line in just 1 of the 5 games and that just happens to be the game the Magic won against Philadelphia. If they hope to win tonight, Paolo’s going to need to help get his teammates going.
Toronto ranks 27th in points allowed this year, 26th in 3s allowed and 24th in opponent 3P percentage this year. Defense is not something in the Raptors current repertoire and tonight feels like the perfect time for the Magic to get their offense rolling in the New Year.
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